Arsenal FC v 
Burnley FC
The model’s call
Arsenal win 91%
Draw 6%
Burnley win 3%
Likely score 3–0
Expected goals 3.1–0.4
Both teams to score 32%
The read
Our model heavily favours Arsenal FC at home, giving them a 91% probability of victory against Burnley FC. The Gunners' dominance in this prediction reflects their superior attacking threat—reflected in an expected goals figure of 3.1 compared to Burnley's 0.4—combined with home advantage at the Emirates. Arsenal's expected output suggests they should control the match comfortably, with the most likely scoreline pointing to a comfortable 3-0 victory.
Full time
Arsenal 1–0 Burnley
The model picked a arsenal win — it called this one right.