Croatia v 
Ghana
The model’s call
Croatia win 46%
Draw 23%
Ghana win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Croatia a slight edge in this World Cup encounter, forecasting a 46% probability of a home win compared to 30% for Ghana. The Vatreni are favoured by home advantage and stronger recent form, though the model expects a competitive match with Croatia generating 1.6 expected goals to Ghana's 1.2. The most likely outcome registered is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the relatively tight nature of the fixture despite Croatia's marginal advantage.