Panama v 
England
The model’s call
Panama win 46%
Draw 23%
England win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Panama a 46% chance to win this home fixture against England, making them the favoured outcome. The hosts benefit from home advantage and attacking potential (1.6 expected goals), though England's defensive structure keeps them competitive. However, the model's most likely scoreline is 1-1, reflecting genuine uncertainty in a match where both sides have realistic chances.