Panama v 
Croatia
The model’s call
Panama win 46%
Draw 23%
Croatia win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Panama a slight edge at home with a 46% win probability against Croatia, though the relatively balanced probabilities reflect this as a competitive fixture. Panama's home advantage and stronger current form tilt the prediction in their favour, despite Croatia's World Cup pedigree. However, with an expected goals ratio of 1.6-1.2 and the most likely scoreline being 1-1, the model suggests this could easily go either way—a draw remains very possible at 24% probability.