England v 
Ghana
The model’s call
England win 46%
Draw 23%
Ghana win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
England are slight favourites against Ghana in this World Cup clash, with our model giving them a 46% chance of victory compared to Ghana's 30%. The Three Lions benefit from home advantage and stronger recent form, though this remains a competitive match. Expected goals favour England (1.6 to 1.2), but Ghana's quality means a draw at 24% is a credible outcome—indeed, the most likely individual scoreline our model projects is 1-1.