Ghana v 
Panama
The model’s call
Ghana win 46%
Draw 23%
Panama win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Ghana a slight edge at home with a 46% win probability, though a draw is far from unlikely at 24%. Despite Ghana being favoured, the expected goals (1.6-1.2) suggest this could be a relatively tight contest. Home advantage appears to be the deciding factor, but Panama's away experience and defensive solidity mean they'll pose a real threat.