England v 
Croatia
The model’s call
England win 46%
Draw 23%
Croatia win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model rates this as a relatively tight contest, giving England a 46% chance of victory at home versus Croatia's 30%, with a draw at 24%. While England hold the advantage of home advantage and are expected to create slightly more clear-cut opportunities (1.6 expected goals to 1.2), Croatia remain a well-organized defensive unit. The model's most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the competitive nature of the matchup and suggesting this could be a cagey affair decided by fine margins.