Congo DR v 
Uzbekistan
The model’s call
Congo DR win 46%
Draw 23%
Uzbekistan win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Congo DR a slim edge at home, backing them to win with 46% probability compared to Uzbekistan's 30%, though a draw is far from unlikely at 24%. The hosts benefit from home advantage and are expected to generate slightly more attacking threat (1.6 xG vs 1.2), but Uzbekistan's away form suggests a competitive match. The most likely outcome according to the model is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the relatively tight nature of this World Cup qualifier.