Colombia v 
Portugal
The model’s call
Colombia win 46%
Draw 23%
Portugal win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Colombia a slight edge at home with a 46% win probability, though this remains a competitive matchup with Portugal given a 30% chance of an away victory. The hosts benefit from home-ground advantage and their expected goals advantage (1.6 to 1.2), yet the draw at 24% underscores how closely matched these sides are expected to be. Colombia's form and familiarity with their own stadium provide marginal backing, but Portugal's quality means this could easily go either way.