Colombia v 
Congo DR
The model’s call
Colombia win 46%
Draw 23%
Congo DR win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Colombia a slight edge in this World Cup encounter, rating them 46% favourites for a home win, with a 30% chance that Congo DR pull off an upset. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw (24%), reflecting a relatively tight contest. Colombia's home advantage and superior expected goals (1.6 to 1.2) underpin their mild favouritism, though Congo DR will be competitive and the model suggests this could easily go either way.