Portugal v 
Uzbekistan
The model’s call
Portugal win 46%
Draw 23%
Uzbekistan win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Portugal a narrow 46% chance to win at home against Uzbekistan, with the draw at 24% and an away victory possible at 30%. The hosts' advantage comes from home-ground benefit, though the xG figures (1.6–1.2) suggest a relatively tight contest where both sides will have meaningful chances. Portugal's form and familiarity with the stage make them slight favourites, but Uzbekistan shouldn't be underestimated—the most likely outcome is actually a 1–1 draw.