Uzbekistan v 
Colombia
The model’s call
Uzbekistan win 46%
Draw 23%
Colombia win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model slightly favours Uzbekistan at home, giving them a 46% chance of victory compared to Colombia's 30%, with a 24% draw probability. The home advantage in Doha works in Uzbekistan's favour, though Colombia's quality as the away side keeps this competitive. Expected goals suggest a tight encounter (1.6 to 1.2), with the most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw—underlining how finely balanced this fixture is likely to be.