Portugal v 
Congo DR
The model’s call
Portugal win 46%
Draw 23%
Congo DR win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Portugal a slight edge at home, rating them as favourites with a 46% win probability against Congo DR. However, this is a competitive matchup—Congo DR's 30% win chance reflects their capacity to trouble Portugal, while the 24% draw probability suggests the sides are relatively evenly matched. Portugal's expected goal advantage of 1.6 to 1.2 reflects home-ground benefit and superior overall form, but the model's most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, highlighting Congo DR's threat.