Algeria v 
Austria
The model’s call
Algeria win 46%
Draw 23%
Austria win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Algeria a slight edge at home with a 46% win probability, though a competitive fixture is anticipated. Algeria's home advantage and expected goal generation of 1.6 support their favoured status, but Austria's defensive solidity—allowing just 1.2 expected goals—keeps this match tight. A draw at 24% reflects the genuine competitive balance, with Austria capable of frustrating their hosts despite facing an opponent with strong home form.