Jordan v 
Algeria
The model’s call
Jordan win 46%
Draw 23%
Algeria win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model slightly favours Jordan at home, giving them a 46% chance of victory compared to Algeria's 30%, with a 24% probability of a draw. The hosts benefit from home-field advantage in what looks to be a competitive fixture, though the expected goals tally of 1.6-1.2 suggests a relatively tight contest. The most likely outcome according to the model is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the fairly even nature of this World Cup qualifier.