Argentina v 
Austria
The model’s call
Argentina win 46%
Draw 23%
Austria win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Argentina a slight edge at home against Austria, with a 46% chance of victory compared to Austria's 30%. The hosts' advantage is modest rather than overwhelming, reflecting Austria's competitive quality. Argentina's home-ground benefit and squad strength edge out their opponents, though an xG model suggesting 1.6 expected goals for Argentina versus 1.2 for Austria indicates this will be a competitive affair—the model's most likely outcome is actually a 1-1 draw.