Argentina v 
Algeria
The model’s call
Argentina win 46%
Draw 23%
Algeria win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Argentina a narrow edge at home, with a 46% win probability compared to Algeria's 30%. Despite the home advantage, this appears a competitive matchup: the expected goals differential (1.6 vs 1.2) suggests Argentina should create slightly more but neither side is expected to dominate. The 24% draw probability reflects the uncertainty, with 1-1 the most likely outcome.