Senegal v 
Iraq
The model’s call
Senegal win 46%
Draw 23%
Iraq win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Senegal a narrow edge at 46% to secure victory, though this is far from a commanding advantage. The most likely outcome is actually a 1-1 draw (24%), reflecting relatively balanced expected goal tallies of 1.6 to 1.2 in Senegal's favour. Home advantage and Senegal's stronger recent form push them into favourites territory, but Iraq will have genuine chances to frustrate their hosts.