Norway v 
France
The model’s call
Norway win 46%
Draw 23%
France win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model backs Norway as slight favourites in this World Cup clash, giving the hosts a 46% chance of victory compared to France's 30%. Norway's home advantage appears decisive here, with their expected goals output of 1.6 suggesting they should create more attacking opportunities than visiting France (1.2 xG). However, a draw is far from unlikely at 24%, and France remain formidable opposition despite the away disadvantage.