Norway v 
Senegal
The model’s call
Norway win 46%
Draw 23%
Senegal win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Norway a modest 46% chance of victory in this World Cup opener, making them narrow favourites over Senegal's 30% win probability. The home advantage and Norway's stronger recent form push them ahead, though the 24% draw probability reflects the competitive nature of this matchup. With expected goals suggesting a tight contest at 1.6–1.2, this is likely to be a closely fought affair rather than a dominant display.