France v 
Iraq
The model’s call
France win 46%
Draw 23%
Iraq win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives France a slight edge at home against Iraq, with a 46% chance of a French victory. However, this is a competitive fixture—Iraq's 30% win probability reflects genuine threat in World Cup knockout conditions. The expected goals suggest a closely matched contest (1.6 to 1.2), with France's home advantage and stronger attacking profile favoring them, though the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 24% probability.