Iraq v 
Norway
The model’s call
Iraq win 46%
Draw 23%
Norway win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Iraq a narrow edge in this World Cup qualifier, favoring a home win at 46% compared to Norway's 30% chance of victory. Iraq's home advantage and current form appear decisive here, with the model expecting them to dominate possession and create marginally more chances (1.6 expected goals vs 1.2). However, the relatively tight probabilities and the 1-1 most likely scoreline suggest this will be a competitive encounter where Norway's defensive solidity could frustrate the hosts.