France v 
Senegal
The model’s call
France win 46%
Draw 23%
Senegal win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model favours France to edge this World Cup clash, giving the hosts a 46% win probability against a 30% chance of a Senegal victory. While France's home advantage and superior expected goals output (1.6 vs 1.2) underpin their slight favouritism, the relatively tight probabilities reflect Senegal's quality as an opponent—they're competitive throughout and a draw (24%) remains a genuine possibility in what the model suggests could be a closely contested match.