Cape Verde Islands v 
Saudi Arabia
The model’s call
Cape Verde win 46%
Draw 23%
Saudi Arabia win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Cape Verde Islands a narrow edge against Saudi Arabia, with a 46% chance of a home win compared to 30% for the visitors. The slight advantage reflects Cape Verde Islands' home-field benefit and expected goal creation of 1.6 versus Saudi Arabia's 1.2, though the model's most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. Both sides appear evenly matched in a competitive encounter, with the result genuinely uncertain despite the home side's marginal favouritism.