Uruguay v 
Spain
The model’s call
Uruguay win 46%
Draw 23%
Spain win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Uruguay a slight edge in this World Cup clash, with a 46% home win probability compared to Spain's 30%. The hosts benefit from home advantage and are favoured to prevail, though this remains a competitive fixture. Expected goals of 1.6 to 1.2 suggest a tightly contested match, with the most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw at 24% probability—reflecting the quality and defensive solidity of both sides.