Uruguay v 
Cape Verde Islands
The model’s call
Uruguay win 46%
Draw 23%
Cape Verde win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Uruguay a slight edge at home, predicting a 46% probability of victory compared to Cape Verde Islands' 30% chance. However, this is a competitive matchup—the draw is relatively likely at 24%. Uruguay's home advantage and superior expected goals (1.6 to 1.2) support the model's lean toward the hosts, though Cape Verde Islands cannot be ruled out in what shapes up as a closely contested qualifier.