Spain v 
Saudi Arabia
The model’s call
Spain win 46%
Draw 23%
Saudi Arabia win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model favours Spain to take the points at home, though it's far from a banker. The model gives Spain a 46% win probability versus Saudi Arabia's 30%, with a notable 24% chance of a draw. Spain's home advantage and superior expected goals (1.6 vs 1.2) underpin the prediction, but the gap between the sides isn't vast—Saudi Arabia remain competitive in this matchup.