Saudi Arabia v 
Uruguay
The model’s call
Saudi Arabia win 46%
Draw 23%
Uruguay win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model slightly favours Saudi Arabia at home, giving them a 46% win probability compared to Uruguay's 30%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The hosts benefit from home advantage in what shapes as a competitive fixture, though the expected goals (1.6-1.2) suggest a tight match where both sides will have limited clear-cut chances. Uruguay remain dangerous away from home, but Saudi Arabia's home-turf advantage edges this in their favour according to the model's assessment.