Spain v 
Cape Verde Islands
The model’s call
Spain win 46%
Draw 23%
Cape Verde win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model favours Spain at home, though this is far from a straightforward fixture. The home win probability of 46% reflects Spain's attacking quality, with an expected goals advantage of 1.6 to 1.2. However, Cape Verde Islands represent a stern test, and the model's most likely scoreline of 1-1 suggests this could be a tightly contested affair where both sides create opportunities.