Egypt v 
Iran
The model’s call
Egypt win 46%
Draw 23%
Iran win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Egypt a slight edge against Iran, with a 46% home-win probability reflecting the advantage of playing in front of their own supporters. However, this is far from a dominant prediction—Iran have a respectable 30% chance of victory. The expected goals tally of 1.6-1.2 suggests a tight, low-scoring affair, and the model's most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, indicating both teams will likely create similar opportunities despite Egypt's marginal favouritism.