New Zealand v 
Belgium
The model’s call
New Zealand win 46%
Draw 23%
Belgium win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives New Zealand a slight edge in this World Cup encounter, with a 46% win probability compared to Belgium's 30%, though a draw remains a realistic outcome at 24%. The home advantage in Wellington plays a key role in New Zealand's favour, combined with Belgium's tendency to underperform in knockout-stage tournaments. Expected goals favour the hosts at 1.6 to 1.2, suggesting New Zealand should create more clear-cut chances, though the model's most likely scoreline of 1-1 reflects the competitive nature of this fixture.