New Zealand v 
Egypt
The model’s call
New Zealand win 46%
Draw 23%
Egypt win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model favours New Zealand at home, giving them a 46% win probability compared to Egypt's 30%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The All Whites' home advantage and expected goals advantage (1.6 to 1.2) underpin the prediction, though the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, suggesting this will be a competitive contest. Egypt remain well-placed to secure a result, but New Zealand's familiarity with their conditions makes them narrow favourites.