Belgium v 
Iran
The model’s call
Belgium win 46%
Draw 23%
Iran win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Belgium enters as slight favourites against Iran, with our model giving them a 46% chance of victory compared to Iran's 30%. The home advantage in Qatar plays a key role here, though the 24% draw probability suggests this could be a tightly contested affair. Expected goals of 1.6-1.2 in Belgium's favour indicate a marginal edge in attacking threat, but Iran's defensive resilience means the hosts will need to convert their chances efficiently.