Iran v 
New Zealand
The model’s call
Iran win 46%
Draw 23%
New Zealand win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Iran a slight edge at home, with a 46% win probability compared to New Zealand's 30%, though a draw is also plausible at 24%. Iran are favored due to home advantage and superior expected goals (1.6 vs 1.2), though the relatively tight probabilities suggest this will be a competitive fixture. The model's base case is a 1-1 draw, reflecting two evenly matched sides in an unpredictable World Cup encounter.