Belgium v 
Egypt
The model’s call
Belgium win 46%
Draw 23%
Egypt win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Belgium a slight edge at home, with a 46% win probability compared to Egypt's 30%, though a draw remains a realistic outcome at 24%. Belgium's home advantage and marginally superior expected goals (1.6 vs 1.2) underpin the pick, though the relatively close probabilities suggest this is a competitive fixture rather than a clear-cut affair.