Japan v 
Sweden
The model’s call
Japan win 46%
Draw 23%
Sweden win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model rates Japan as slight favourites over Sweden in this World Cup fixture, giving them a 46% chance of victory compared to Sweden's 30%. The home advantage in Qatar provides a meaningful boost, though the expected goals (1.6-1.2) suggest a relatively tight encounter. Japan's form and familiarity with the venue edge them ahead, but a draw at 24% probability highlights the competitive nature of the matchup.