Tunisia v 
Netherlands
The model’s call
Tunisia win 46%
Draw 23%
Netherlands win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model rates Tunisia as slight favourites in this World Cup clash, with a 46% chance of a home win compared to 30% for Netherlands. The model's pick reflects Tunisia's home-ground advantage, though the relatively close probabilities suggest this will be a competitive encounter. Expected goals of 1.6-1.2 indicate a tight, cautious affair, with the most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw—reflecting the genuine uncertainty between two evenly-matched sides.