Tunisia v 
Japan
The model’s call
Tunisia win 46%
Draw 23%
Japan win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Tunisia a slight edge at home, with a 46% win probability compared to Japan's 30%, though a draw at 24% remains a credible outcome. Tunisia's home advantage and expected goals advantage (1.6 to 1.2) underpin the model's lean toward the hosts, but Japan's defensive quality means this is a competitive fixture where no result would be surprising.