Netherlands v 
Sweden
The model’s call
Netherlands win 46%
Draw 23%
Sweden win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Netherlands a slight edge at 46% to claim victory, with Sweden rated at 30% and a draw at 24%. The hosts benefit from home advantage in this World Cup clash, though the expected goals (1.6-1.2) suggest a relatively tight encounter. Sweden remain dangerous on the counter, but the Dutch's attacking prowess at home makes them marginal favourites.