Sweden v 
Tunisia
The model’s call
Sweden win 46%
Draw 23%
Tunisia win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Sweden a slight edge at home with a 46% win probability, though a draw remains a realistic outcome at 24%. Sweden's home advantage and superior expected goals (1.6 vs 1.2) underpin the lean toward the hosts, but Tunisia's 30% win probability reflects their threat as an unpredictable African side. This is a competitive fixture where the margins are tight.