Netherlands v 
Japan
The model’s call
Netherlands win 46%
Draw 23%
Japan win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Netherlands a slight edge at home with a 46% win probability, though Japan pose a genuine threat with a 30% chance of pulling off an upset. The Dutch are favoured by home advantage and stronger expected goals (1.6 to 1.2), but this looks like a competitive fixture—the most likely outcome in the model's view is actually a 1-1 draw, reflecting how evenly matched these sides could be.