Curaçao v 
Ivory Coast
The model’s call
Curaçao win 46%
Draw 23%
Ivory Coast win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Curaçao the edge at home, with a 46% win probability compared to Ivory Coast's 30%, though a draw is far from unlikely at 24%. The hosts benefit from home advantage and are favoured in expected goals (1.6 to 1.2), but this is a competitive fixture—Ivory Coast's quality means Curaçao cannot be confident, and the model's most likely scoreline of 1-1 underscores how evenly matched these sides could prove.