Ecuador v 
Germany
The model’s call
Ecuador win 46%
Draw 23%
Germany win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model favours Ecuador at home, giving them a 46% chance of victory compared to Germany's 30%, with a 24% probability of a draw. Ecuador's home advantage plays a significant role here, with an expected goals differential (1.6-1.2) suggesting they should create slightly more attacking opportunities. However, this remains a competitive fixture—Germany's quality means they're far from favourites, but they're certainly capable of getting a result.