Ecuador v 
Curaçao
The model’s call
Ecuador win 46%
Draw 23%
Curaçao win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Ecuador are slight favourites to beat Curaçao according to our model, which gives them a 46% chance of victory. However, this is a closely-contested fixture with a draw at 24% and Curaçao's away win at 30% all realistic outcomes. The expected goals differential (1.6 to 1.2) suggests Ecuador should edge possession and chance creation, likely aided by their home advantage, though the most probable single result is a 1-1 draw.