Germany v 
Ivory Coast
The model’s call
Germany win 46%
Draw 23%
Ivory Coast win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model favours Germany to win at home, though it's a relatively tight match-up. The home side sits as the narrow 46% favourite against Ivory Coast, with the draw a realistic 24% outcome. Germany's home advantage and superior depth appear decisive, but the model expects a competitive encounter with expected goals of 1.6 to 1.2 in their favour—tight enough that Ivory Coast's counter-attacking threat remains very real.