Ivory Coast v 
Ecuador
The model’s call
Ivory Coast win 46%
Draw 23%
Ecuador win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Ivory Coast a 46% chance of victory at home, with a draw at 24% and Ecuador favoured to spoil the party at just 30%. The hosts' home advantage and slightly superior expected goals (1.6 to 1.2) provide modest support, though this remains a closely-matched encounter—the model's most likely outcome is actually a 1-1 draw, suggesting both sides will create chances.