Germany v 
Curaçao
The model’s call
Germany win 46%
Draw 23%
Curaçao win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Germany are favoured by our model to take the win against Curaçao, with a 46% probability of a home victory. However, this is a competitive match—the model assigns a 30% chance to an upset away win and 24% to a draw. Germany's home advantage and typically superior squad depth support their favouring, though the expected goals data (1.6 to 1.2) suggests a relatively tight contest where clinical finishing could prove decisive.