Paraguay v 
Australia
The model’s call
Paraguay win 32%
Draw 21%
Australia win 47%
Likely score 0–4
Expected goals 0.0–5.0
Both teams to score 0%
The read
Our model gives Paraguay a narrow edge at home, with a 46% win probability compared to Australia's 30%, though a draw remains a realistic outcome at 24%. The hosts benefit from home advantage in this World Cup fixture, though the expected goals (1.6-1.2) suggest a relatively tight contest. Paraguay's slight favouritism reflects the typical boost of playing at home, but the closeness of the probabilities indicates this should be competitive.