Turkey v 
United States
The model’s call
Turkey win 32%
Draw 21%
USA win 47%
Likely score 0–4
Expected goals 0.0–5.0
Both teams to score 0%
The read
Our model gives Turkey a slight edge in this World Cup clash, backing a home win at 46% to the United States' 30%. Turkey's home advantage and expected goal creation (1.6 vs 1.2) underpin the pick, though the model's most likely outcome is actually a 1-1 draw, suggesting this will be a tightly contested affair. The high draw probability of 24% reflects how evenly matched these sides could be.