United States v 
Australia
The model’s call
USA win 37%
Draw 24%
Australia win 39%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.0–1.2
Both teams to score 0%
The read
Our model gives United States a slight edge at 46% to claim victory, though this is far from a dominant prediction. The hosts benefit from home advantage and are favoured in expected goals (1.6 vs 1.2), but Australia's 30% win probability reflects their capacity to trouble any opponent. A draw is a realistic outcome at 24%, with 1-1 the model's most likely scoreline—suggesting a competitive, tightly-balanced contest.